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Science of The Total Environment

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Science of The Total Environment's content profile, based on 186 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.17% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Municipal wastewater surveillance reveals socioeconomic and immigration gradients in antimicrobial resistance across Alberta, Canada

Lee, J.; Gonzalez, C.; Au, E.; Acosta, N.; Waddell, B. J.; Xu, Z. S.; Clark, R. G.; Weyant, R. B.; Dalton, B.; Zaheer, R.; McAllister, T. A.; Barkema, H.; Nobrega, D.; Bhatnagar, S.; Lee, B. E.; Pang, X.; O'Grady, C.; Frankowski, K.; Bertazzon, S.; Conly, J. M.; Hubert, C. R. J.; Parkins, M. D.

2026-07-21 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.19.26358431 medRxiv
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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an ever-increasing threat to population health. Industrial, environmental and societal factors are increasingly recognized as important contributors to AMR within communities. Here, we investigated the spatial distribution of AMR genes (ARGs) across Alberta, Canada and their association with socio-economic, immigration-related, and agro-industrial characteristics using municipal wastewater-based surveillance. We analyzed monthly wastewater metagenomes collected between March 2022 and March 2023 across eleven municipalities, representing 39% of Alberta's population. Integration with census data enabled multivariate analysis, revealing that municipal resistome profiles were strongly structured along income and immigration-related population gradients. ARGs spanning 14 resistance classes exhibited distinct distributional patterns across income and immigration gradients, including contrasting associations among beta-lactam, aminoglycoside, and macrolide-lincosamide-streptogramin ARGs, consistent with heterogeneous selection pressures across sub-populations. These findings demonstrate the capacity of longitudinal wastewater surveillance to identify persistent population-level resistome patterns and highlight the importance of incorporating sociodemographic context into AMR surveillance and mitigation strategies.

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Epigenetic age acceleration is associated with contaminant exposure in common dolphins (Delphinus delphis)

Lattmann, A. C.; Hanninger, E.-M. F.; Betty, E. L.; Shen, X.; Anderson, M. J.; Gaw, S.; Mann, S. S.; Gao, W.; Peters, K. J.; Yi, S.; Jokela, J. W.; Stockin, K. A.

2026-06-26 zoology 10.64898/2026.06.22.733504 medRxiv
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Metals and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) represent a significant environmental concern, yet their association with epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) remain largely understudied in marine mammals. Here, associations between EAA in common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) and life history (sex and sexual maturity), trace metals, and PFAS were investigated. EAA was calculated as the residual in the regression of epigenetic age vs chronological age, hence providing a direct measure of the deviation of the epigenetic age of an organism (positive or negative) by comparison with expectation, given their actual chronological age. Sixteen trace elements were quantified in hepatic and renal tissues (n = 53). In addition, 28 PFAS were quantified in hepatic tissue (n = 58). Associations between EAA and explanatory variables were assessed using regression-based and multivariate modelling approaches (linear models and canonical analysis of principal coordinates). No effect of sex was observed, although sexual maturity did significantly increase EAA. Exposure to metals was significantly associated with EAA, explaining 55.4% of the variation, with hepatic metals (Se, Zn, Cu, Al, Mn) driving this relationship. Although EAA was not significantly related to the total PFAS exposure overall, a subset of PFAS variables (PFBA, PFDA, PFHxS-B, PFNA) showed significant association with EAA after adjusting for sex and sexual maturity. Together, these subsets of metal and PFAS variables, in addition to the selenium-to-mercury (Se:Hg) molar ratio, explained 66.7% of the variation in EAA. Our results identify sexual maturity and specific contaminant mixtures as key potential drivers of EAA in common dolphins, highlighting the possible use of EAA as a biomarker of environmental and physiological stress in marine mammals.

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Pulse-driven and persistent antimicrobial resistance markers in a transboundary Great Lakes connecting channel: pulse-week-stratified water-quality thresholds for One Health surveillance

Yao, X.; Otieno, D.; Geng, Q.; Brown, K. M.; Zhang, L.; McKay, R. M.; Lawal, O. U.

2026-06-27 microbiology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734869 medRxiv
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Surface waters in urban watersheds receive episodic inputs of wastewater, runoff, and road-salt residues during spring, yet the contribution of these short hydrological windows to antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) loading remains poorly resolved. Weekly samples were collected from offshore and nearshore sites in the Detroit River, a Great Lakes transboundary connecting channel, from February to December 2025. Five clinically relevant ARGs encoding resistance to carbapenems, methicillin, and colistin, alongside the fecal marker pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), were quantified by qPCR and paired with ten conventional water-quality variables. blaNDM, mcr-1, and blaVIM-7 were not detected while blaKPC occurred as discrete pulses. One week (5 May) accounted for 37.2% of annual offshore blaKPC loading, and three weeks in late April to early May accounted for 72.8%, with peak concentrations reaching 5.4 x 10E3 and 7.2 x 10E3 copies/L. mecA was detected in nearly all samples without a dominant pulse. PMMoV normalization showed blaKPC did not vary seasonally (Kruskal-Wallis p = 0.198), consistent with diluted wastewater during spring precipitation events rather than an emergent source. mecA/PMMoV varied seasonally (p = 0.003) and was lowest in spring, implicating non-wastewater inputs in summer and autumn. Seven water-quality variables were significantly elevated during blaKPC pulse weeks. PCA distinguished pulse from background conditions, explaining 81.3% of variance. A random forest classifier achieved leave-one-out AUC of 0.917; ROC AUC reached 0.943 for total phosphorus, 0.924 for chloride, and 0.974 for the multivariate model. These results demonstrate that blaKPC and mecA operate through distinct source pathways and that routine water-quality monitoring can flag elevated blaKPC risk without additional sampling infrastructure.

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Using wastewater surveillance to explore community-level dietary intake in sewered and non-sewered sanitation systems in Malawi, Africa

Holm, R. H.; Chigwechokha, P.; Kaponda, C.; Stephens, M.; Limbong, H.; Ercumen, A.; Hart, J.; Workman, C. L.; de los Reyes, F. L.; Chunga, B. A.

2026-06-15 nutrition 10.64898/2026.06.07.26354900 medRxiv
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Wastewater can be used to measure biomarkers that reflect population-level dietary intake and diversity; however, how this approach may apply in a low-income country remains a knowledge gap. This study aims to evaluate whether select dietary-related metabolites can be detected in wastewater and environmental surveillance (WES) samples from both sewered and non-sewered sanitation systems in Malawi, Africa. Fourteen WES samples were collected and analyzed from two university campuses in Mzuzu and Thyolo, Malawi. Four targets were analyzed: N-methyl-2-pyridone-5-carboxamide (2PY; a biomarker of vitamin B3), 4-pyridoxic acid (4-PA; a biomarker of vitamin B6), as well as enterodiol and enterolactone (biomarkers of dietary fiber and polyphenol consumption). An 18-question survey, paired spatiotemporally with the WES measurements, assessed self-reported daily dietary intake, food insecurity, and nutrient deficiency symptoms among 500 respondents. Among the 14 WES samples, 2PY, 4-PA, and enterolactone were detected, while enterodiol was not detected above the method limit (<0.3 mg/kg). Most respondents (79%; 397/500) reported consuming foods associated with the 2PY biomarker. Many respondents (62%; 311/500) also reported consuming foods linked to the 4-PA biomarker. Fewer respondents (36%; 181/500) reported consuming foods associated with enterodiol or enterolactone, such as whole grains (e.g., millet) and other fiber-rich plant foods (e.g., beans, chickpeas, or pigeon peas). This study demonstrates the potential feasibility of monitoring dietary-related metabolites in both sewered and non-sewered sanitation systems in a low-income country to augment community-level nutrition data. 2PY, 4-PA, and enterolactone were detectable in WES samples, supporting the advancement of this emerging field in nutrition and food security research.

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Record-breaking wildfire intensity and nocturnal spread during the extreme 2025 wildfire season in Southwestern Europe: causes and impacts

Resco de Dios, V.; Cunill Camprubi, A.; Schutze, S.; Castedo-Dorado, F.; Picos, J.; Ramirez, J.; Domenech, R.; Bachfischer, M.; Castellnou, M.; Cardil, A.

2026-06-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.15.732327 medRxiv
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Southwestern Europe faced an extreme wildfire season in 2025, with nearly 700,000 hectares burned in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) alone. Here, we analyze the drivers and impacts of the 2025 wildfire season in the IP and its significance within the ongoing global pyrocrisis. Decades-long declines in burned area, driven by increased fire suppression, ceased after an inflection point in 2022. Fire intensity has escalated over the last two decades, and the energy emitted in 2025 approached that produced annually by a 1,000MW nuclear reactor. Despite a historically wet spring, an extreme summer heatwave triggered a flash drought, dehydrating fuels below critical thresholds. Remarkably, 29-42% of all wildfires spread faster at night than during the day, a seldom-reported phenomenon likely arising from interactions between surface weather, atmospheric instability, and pyroconvective processes. Global change-induced increases in fire intensity facilitated the overwhelming of suppression efforts during simultaneous fire events that may have been manageable decades ago. Fire activity expanded into previously fire-free high-altitude regions, and there was a marked change in fire-size distributions, with the largest wildfire in record and the largest proportion of burned area by megafires (those burning over 5,000ha). Impacts included over 2,000 premature deaths from smoke exposure and significant effects on protected areas. These results indicate shifts in key components of anthropogenic fire regimes, including unprecedented nocturnal fire acceleration and increased burned area and fire intensity, with escalating impacts on human health and ecosystems.

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High residual pesticide contamination despite contrasted feeding treatments in semi-captive bred grey partridges

Dupont, S. M.; Monceau, K.; Gaffard, A.; Rodrigues, A.; Millet, M.; Noualhier, J.; Bailly, A.; Bretagnolle, V.; Pays, O.; Moreau, J.

2026-07-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.23.740315 medRxiv
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Food security is one of the major ongoing global anthropic challenges, driving the intensification of agricultural systems notably through the widespread use of phyto-pharmaceutical products (PPPs). Although effective for maximizing production yields through pest control, PPP contamination is pervasive across the entire agroecosystem, raising concerns about human and non-target species exposure and health effects. Organic farming has therefore been promoted as a sustainable alternative to ensure human food security and mitigate these impacts. Yet, the pathways of PPP non-target organisms contamination are insufficiently understood. While most research has focused on ingestion as the primary route of exposure, increasing evidence suggests more complex contamination dynamics. In this study, we investigated the role of food intake in shaping PPP contamination profiles in semi-captive grey partridges (Perdix perdix). To do so, 80 birds were housed in open aviaries within an agricultural landscape and fed either conventional or organic grains over a five-month period. After drawing their PPP blood profiles at the end of the exposure period, we assessed their loads and compared the pesticide prevalence and abundance between food treatments. We found similar quantity and diversity of PPP residues in blood from conventionally- and organically-fed partridges, with few differences in specific PPP compounds. Overall, these findings suggest that food intake is not necessarily the only source of contamination for non-target organisms, with alternative pathways (e.g., inhalation, dermal contact, soil and water exposure) likely playing a substantial role. Integrating multi-pathway contamination monitoring across trophic levels within a One Health framework would now be essential to better understand and mitigate PPP contamination risks. Submitted to PCI: Ecotoxicology and Environmental Chemistry

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Beyond green cover: Greenspace morphology and configuration predict heat-related illness in Arizona

Wang, H.; Li, S.; Gholami, S.; Hoover, J.; Waller, M.; Ernst, K.

2026-07-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.08.26357485 medRxiv
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Residential greenness has been associated with reduced heat-related illness, yet the specific role of greenspace morphology at the neighborhood scale remains insufficiently understood. This study quantified the relationship between heat-related illness and multiple dimensions of greenspace morphology using an eight year (2016-2023) unbalanced panel dataset comprising 19,021 block group year observations across 2,427 census block groups in Arizona, USA. One meter high resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program aerial imagery was classified to calculate greenspace percentage, number of greenspaces, average size, shape complexity, connectedness, and distantness, at the block group level. We applied conditional spatial autoregressive models with a negative binomial distribution to estimate associations between each morphology metric and yearly heat-related illness counts, adjusting for sociodemographic and geographic covariates. We found higher greenspace percentage, aggregation, shape complexity, connectedness, and density were consistently associated with lower heat-related illness risk. A one standard deviation increases in shape complexity corresponded to a 12.4% decrease in expected heat-related illness counts (IRR=0.876, 95% CI: 0.834-0.921). Similarly, increases in greenspace percentage (14.6% decrease; IRR=0.855, 95% CI: 0.827-0.885), number of greenspace patches (3.7% decrease; IRR=0.963, 95% CI: 0.937-0.990), average size (4.5% decrease; IRR=0.955, 95% CI: 0.923-0.989), and connectedness (5.5% decrease; IRR=0.945, 95% CI: 0.918-0.972) were all protective. In contrast, larger inter greenspace distances were associated with increased heat-related illness risk (6.1% increase; IRR=1.061, 95% CI: 1.033-1.091). Our findings highlight the critical importance of multiple dimensions of greenspace morphology in mitigating heat-related health risks. These results suggest that heat reduction planning with greening initiatives should consider not only the amount of greenspace but also its spatial configuration to maximize cooling and result in health benefits.

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Chemical Dynamics of Heavy Metal Translocation and Phytoaccumulation Paradoxes in Highly Leached, Acidic Xanthic Ferralsols of Fendall, Liberia

Dorbor, C. G.; Nyuma, H. T.

2026-08-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.04.740606 medRxiv
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Heavy metal contamination in soil systems is an escalating global crisis, yet over 55% of urban agriculture literature focuses on high-tech indoor vertical farming, leaving vulnerable open-field tropical urban agriculture (UPA) severely under-researched. This study addresses this knowledge gap by evaluating the chemical mechanics of heavy metal translocation within highly acidic Xanthic Ferralsols in Fendall, Liberia, serving as a global proxy for tropical agro-ecosystem risks. Using a randomized complete block design, topsoil (0-20 cm) from five cultivated and five uncultivated sites (n = 10) and corresponding tissues of cabbage (Brassica oleracea), lettuce (Lactuca sativa), and sweet potato greens (Ipomoea batatas) were screened via handheld X-ray fluorescence spectrometry. Results revealed a compelling geochemical paradox: uncultivated soils demonstrated significantly higher geogenic background metal concentrations across all elements (p < 0.05). Systemic Nickel (Ni) above the World Health Organization (WHO) thresholds was recorded on both land-use histories. While plant tissues accumulation of Copper (Cu) and Zinc (Zn) remained within safe parameters, Lead (Pb) concentrations across all crops profoundly exceeded food safety standards, averaging 1.53 mg/kg, which is over 5 times above the WHO limit (0.30 mg/kg). Risk screening highlighted high soil-to-plant transfer factors (TF =>1) for Ni and Zn in plant tissue, in the order of cabbage > sweet potato greens > lettuce. These findings provide transferable insights into how high soil acidity accelerates toxic metal mobilization, offering a scalable framework for crop-specific exclusion policies and real-time field screening in tropical municipalities. AbstractRapid urban agricultural expansion in Montserrado County, Liberia, relies heavily on highly weathered acidic Xanthic Ferralsols. While these soils support crop growth, they present a hidden geogenic risk of heavy metal translocation to the human food chain. This study evaluated the concentrations of Copper (Cu), Nickel (Ni), Lead (Pb), and Zinc (Zn) in the soils and edible tissues of cabbage (Brassica oleracea), lettuce (Lactuca sativa), and sweet potato greens (Ipomoea batatas) in Fendall. The uncultivated soils exhibited a geochemical paradox, showing significantly higher total metal concentrations than cultivated plots. However, low soil pH (4.0-6.0) highly mobilized these geogenic metals, driving rapid plant uptake. While tissue concentrations of Cu, Ni, and Zn remained within safe physiological ranges, Lead (Pb) concentrations in all three crops reached an alarming mean of 1.53 mg/kg, exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) permissible safety limit of 0.30 mg/kg by more than 5-fold. The soil-to-plant Transfer Factors (TF) for Lead ranged from 0.51 to 0.81, highlighting significant bioavailable translocation despite the lack of visible crop phytotoxicity. These results demonstrate that passive geogenic metal uptake poses a silent public health threat. Immediate agronomic interventions, including systematic liming and crop-exclusion frameworks, are urgently required to safeguard urban food security in Monrovia. GRAPHIC ABSTRACT O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=157 SRC="FIGDIR/small/740606v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (111K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1171648org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b7f56eorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@15227e6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b996bf_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

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200 years of river engineering: changes in meta-ecosystem resilience and connectivity

Kowal, J. L.; Gross, S.; Haidvogl, G.; Hein, T.; Hohensinner, S.; Funk, A.

2026-07-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.03.736339 medRxiv
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This study investigates changes in habitat connectivity and meta-ecosystem resilience between 1817 and 2022 along a 150 km section of a large European river (Danube) and its adjacent floodplains. The analysis was based on a time series of functional habitat networks (graphs) constructed from historical records and remote sensing data, integrating habitat suitability and dispersal modes of functional organism groups. The results indicate that overall habitat availability declined by about 50% since 1817, leading to the near-complete loss of functional connectivity among dynamic habitats by 1910. Less dynamic habitats persisted or expanded but became functionally less connected. Connectivity-based habitat classification further revealed four distinct functional connectivity clusters and the near-complete loss of an originally dominant, dynamic, and highly connected habitat type. Furthermore, the results indicated a fundamental loss of meta-ecosystem resilience. This development was reflected by increased spatial modularity among functionally similar habitats and by reduced layer dissimilarity and structural robustness in multilayer networks representing the spatial habitat structure and functional habitat connectivity across different functional organism groups.

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Spatiotemporal Interactions of Air Pollution, Airborne Pollen, and Land Cover on Asthma and Allergies Medication Sales: A Population-Level Ecological Study

Annesi-Maesano, I.; Prud'homme, J.

2026-07-22 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358483 medRxiv
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Introduction The interaction between air pollution and airborne pollen is emerging as a major public health concern, as it may enhance allergic responses and exacerbate asthma at the population level. Available evidence suggests that urban residents experience a higher burden of respiratory allergies than rural populations, potentially due to the combined effects of chemical air pollutants and pollen exposure. Air pollutants may modify pollen characteristics, increase allergen release and potency, and promote airway inflammation, thereby amplifying allergic sensitization and respiratory symptoms. Aims For the first time, the relationship between air pollution, pollen, and asthma and allergies is investigated by simultaneously factoring in spatiotemporal land cover data (urban, agricultural, and forest spaces). Methods We utilized descriptive statistics, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), and spatial analysis to understand the relationship of birch, grass and all taxons count, NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations (micro grams/m3) and land cover type (urban/rural, agriculture, forest) in Bordeaux, Clermont, Marseille, Nancy, Paris, Poitiers, Reims and Strasbourg using prescribed and over the count sales data for asthma (R03) and allergies (R06), from a representative sample of pharmacies (n=12,000), in 2013. Results In 2013, the 8 cities saw total sales of 9,684,577 R03 and 12,344,102 R06 medications, with sales peaks coinciding with high pollen and air pollution. A spatiotemporal and land cover analysis revealed that relationships between these variables are highly context-dependent. For instance, higher R06 sales clustered in areas with medium pollen (taxon deciles 3 to 4, grass 4 to 5, birch 6 to 7), high pollution ("NO" _2 deciles 8 to 10, "PM" _2.5 5 and 8 to 10, "PM" _10 3, 7, 9 to10), high agricultural land, and low forest/urban space. Conversely, some associations did not vary by location, suggesting external influencing factors. Conclusions Our data raise evidence that pollen and air pollution can act synergistically according to the land cover characteristics. Other investigations are needed to confirm the relationship.

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Biochar reduces soil thermal conductivity, diffusivity and volumetric heat storage: A global meta-analysis

Gholamahmadi, B.; Beillouin, D.; Weber, K.; Trakal, L.; Masek, O.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734746 medRxiv
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Biochar amendments are increasingly applied to improve soil physical functioning and support carbon dioxide removal, but their effects on intrinsic soil thermal properties remain poorly characterised. We conducted the first global systematic meta-analysis of 19 independent studies, 231 control-biochar comparisons, and 529 property-specific effect sizes to test how biochar changes soil heat transfer and storage. Biochar reduced thermal conductivity by 17.6% (95% CI, -22.7 to -12.2), thermal diffusivity by 11.0% (-14.5 to -7.3), and volumetric heat capacity by 8.3% (-12.3 to -4.1). Gravimetric heat capacity showed no significant overall response (+3.3%; -7.6 to 15.4) but was supported by fewer studies. Negative responses were directionally consistent for thermal conductivity, diffusivity, and volumetric heat capacity. Moderator analyses showed that responses were most consistently associated with post-application bulk density and changes in bulk density, while application rate modulated response magnitude and soil texture constrained context dependence. Co-variation among thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, and volumetric heat capacity matched expected physical dependencies, indicating coordinated structural reorganisation rather than independent shifts in isolated parameters. These estimates describe intrinsic conductive and storage properties; field-scale soil temperature responses may also be modified by albedo, evaporation, vegetation, and surface energy balance. Improved integration of soil thermal measurements with moisture dynamics, structural changes, and carbon cycling is essential to accurately represent biochar effects in soil and land-surface models.

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Chemical Mixtures in River Basins: Combining Additive and Independent Effects with Probabilistic Risk Modelling

Moe, S. J.; Madsen, A. L.; Mentzel, S.; Viaene, K. P. J.; Vlaeminck, K.; Grung, M.; Martins, S. E.; Subelj, G.; Welch, S. A.; Verdonck, F.

2026-06-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.03.729784 medRxiv
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Chemical mixtures and potential cocktail effects in aquatic ecosystems are recognised as a threat for river basins world-wide. Probabilistic risk approaches are becoming more common in environmental risk assessment, and offer new opportunities for metodological challenges such as of mixture risk characterisation. The Concentration Addition (CA) concept is commonly used in lower-tier risk assessment (e.g., sum of risk quotients), as a pragmatic and protective method. However, the alternative Independent Action (IA) concept can easily be implemented in probabilistic risk calculation (e.g., joint probability of threshold exceedances). We have developed a multi-level probabilistic model for integrating these two concepts, formulated as an object-oriented Bayesian network (BN). First, probabilistic risk quotients (RQ) are calculated for individual substances, as probability distributions of environmental concentrations divided by a threshold environmental value. Next, the CA concept is applied within groups of substances by summing the RQ distributions. Finally, the IA concept is applied across the different substance groups, assuming independent modes of action, to combine RQ distributions by joint probability calculation ("OR" expressions). Predicted exposure concentrations were obtained from the ENCORE fate model, a process-based model for simulation of chemicals in river basins across Europe. Here we present a pilot study focusing on a subset of the substances (15 pesticides) and river basins (in Belgium), as a proof-of-concept. The purpose of this pilot study was to demonstrate a novel probabilistic approach to mixture risk characterisation, by combining the CA and IA concepts in a multi-level BN. The results were consistent across scenarios as well as with literature, with CA-based risk characterisations being slightly higher the IA-based. The combined CA+IA-based risk represents a reasonable compromise. Sensitivity analysis of the BN can provide an effective ranking of the risk-driving substances and groups, to support chemical prioritisation and risk managment. Key pointsO_LIA multi-level Bayesian network (BN) was developed for probabilistic calculation of environmental risk from chemical mixtures, based on risk quotients (RQ) calculated for individual substances, with a selection of 15 pesticides in Belgium as a pilot study. C_LIO_LIPredicted environmental concentrations (PEC) are obtained from the ENCORE exposure model; a process-based model which can simulate transport, fate and concentration of >1000 substances (pesticides, pharmaceuticals, etc.) in rivers subcatchments across Europe based on chemical use and emission. C_LIO_LIThe BNs risk calculation uses substance groups (Fungicides, Herbicides and Insecticides) to combine two classical mixture concepts: (1) Concentration Addition: sum of RQs within groups, followed by (2) Independent Action: joint probability of threshold exceedance for one or more groups. C_LIO_LIThe resulting rankings of risk-driving substances by the BN for this pilot study are robust across scenarios, suggesting a potential for expanding this generic BN approach to different mixtures with higher numbers of substances and groups, and to larger regions of Europe. C_LI

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The effects of estrogen exposure on survival, growth, and fecundity of Daphnia magna

Boyle, S.; Schaack, S.

2026-07-02 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.06.27.734946 medRxiv
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High concentrations of steroidal hormone compounds are a growing source of concern for environmental pollution in aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we examine the effects of two estrogenic compounds (estriol and 17-ethinylestradiol) on fitness traits in the aquatic microcrustacean, Daphnia magna, a key bioindicator species for toxicology studies. The impacts were compared of two forms representing a natural and synthetic estrogenic compound. Growth and reproduction traits were assayed by exposing Daphnia to each estrogen type at four concentrations reflecting potential environmental exposure conditions up to acute toxicity levels (ranging from 0.1 - 50 {micro}g/L). Assaying the effects at a variety of concentrations is important given that it is known that hormone exposures can often result in non-monotonic responses. Both forms of estrogen impact a subset of the traits assessed, in some cases leading to beneficial changes and others causing harm. Estriol, the naturally-occurring estrogen, and EE2, the synthetic version, at high doses shift fitness traits in opposite directions such as adult growth rate as do at low doses for fecundity. In conclusion, our results support the need to assay a wide array of traits using multiple forms of steroidal hormones at a range of doses in order to assess non-monotonic patterns and their impact on an organismal fitness. In particular, assays that extend beyond the conventional measurements of lethality during acute exposure windows will be essential for understanding the impact of increased levels of hormone pollution on aquatic organisms and ecosystem health.

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Lake ecosystem responses to runoff variability across time and space

Langenheder, S.; Mesman, J. P.; Kreuter, N.; Kothawala, D.; Agreda-Lopez, G.; Ari, A.; Berger, S. A.; Bernal, S.; Buttyan, B.; Bick, B.; Carabal, N.; Catalan, N.; Charmpila, E. A.; Colom Montero, W.; Erturk Ari, P.; Elfferich, I.; Exner, J.; Gergacz, B.; Gray, E.; Happe, A.; Jiao, C.; Jones, K.; Karakaya, N.; Kulas, A.; Lupon, A.; Mangold, C.; Mendoza-Lera, C.; Nejstgaard, J. C.; Oppong, J.; Pedregal-Montes, A.; Perujo, N.; Rankinen, J.; Rutting, T.; Sjostedt, J.; Striebel, M.; Symiakaki, K.; van Dam, E.; Wentritt, S.; Yaqoob, M. M.; Yildiz, K.; Sassenhagen, I.

2026-06-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.18.729811 medRxiv
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Inland waters in the Northern Hemisphere are experiencing increased annual runoff due to higher overall precipitation as well as intensified short-term events such as heavy rainfall, floods and storms. These events affect the total loading and variability of inputs of allochthonous, coloured dissolved organic matter (cDOM) and inorganic nutrients into lakes. Previous studies have shown that increased total cDOM and inorganic nutrient loads affect phytoplankton biomass and metabolic rates, but it is unknown how the effects of different cDOM and nutrient pulse scenarios are modified by spatial and seasonal differences in lake characteristics. Here, we conducted a coordinated, standardized mesocosm experiment across three lakes with different ambient cDOM and nutrient concentrations. In two of these lakes, the experiment was implemented in two seasons. The same total amounts of cDOM, nitrate and phosphate were added to all mesocosms, but in pulses that differed in intensity and frequency. We found that pulse intensity and frequency affected chlorophyll a and phycocyanin concentrations and metabolic rates, i.e. gross primary production and respiration, differently. Specifically, more pronounced effects were found in response to the extreme pulse scenario compared to those with more frequent, smaller pulse additions. Furthermore, the effects were mainly temporary and varied more among lakes than between seasons. The clearest differences between the extreme and more gradual runoff scenarios were found in the lake with the lowest background cDOM and nitrate concentrations, likely because lower light limitation and possibly stronger initial N-limitation caused a faster response to the nutrient addition. Our results highlight that both antecedent lake conditions and characteristics of runoff events can affect phytoplankton biomass and metabolic rates and that comparative experimental approaches are needed to reveal the complexity of the responses.

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RSV concentration in wastewater and trends among incident hospitalizations in children and older adults

Hill, D. T.; Laplante, J.; Byun, S.; Alazawi, M.; Gowie, D. L.; Biswas, S.; Hill, L.; Zhu, Y.; Foote, M.; Kappus-Kron, H.; Blatz, M. N.; Bradley, I.; Ye, Y.; St. George, K.; Larsen, D. A.

2026-07-23 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.21.26358587 medRxiv
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Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has the potential to fill gaps in clinical surveillance for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden. Previous studies have shown RSV to be detectable in wastewater, but few have linked detections to clinical data because, in many locations, RSV is not a reportable disease. Further, studies that have linked RSV in wastewater to clinical data have not distinguished between pediatric and adult infections, as is common in studies of RSV. Using 2,662 influent wastewater samples collected from twenty-four treatment plants in four New York counties, we measured the RSV concentration in wastewater and compared levels detected to RSV hospitalizations from September 2022 to July 2024. RSV concentrations in wastewater correlated well with RSV hospitalizations ({rho} between 0.52 and 0.85, P <0.001). RSV concentrations in wastewater lagged hospitalizations for under 10-year-olds by an average of three weeks but were a leading indicator for hospitalizations in patients over 50 by up to two weeks. In predictive models, wastewater explained 88 percent of the variance in RSV hospital admissions among people over 50. Wastewater-based epidemiology of RSV is therefore a reliable surveillance method and could provide early warning for increases in RSV hospitalizations among older populations.

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Evaluation of Anthropogenic influence on surface water quality and its ecological risk in the Ahafo Ano Southwest District

Azanu, D.; Gyebi, A. S. A.; Nutsuklo, S. M.; Marfo, S. Y.; Aidoo, I. A.; Nyarkoh, F.; Barimah, E.; Tilahun, S. A.; Adusei-Gyamfi, J.

2026-08-04 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.07.30.741919 medRxiv
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Surface water quality is a significant public health concern because contaminated rivers and lakes can spread waterborne diseases and expose communities to harmful pollutants, particularly in areas where water treatment and regulation are limited. This study assesses the anthropogenic impact on surface water quality in the Ahafo Ano Southwest District, Ghana. Water samples were collected from three locations within the Mankran watershed during both wet and dry seasons and analyzed for key parameters. Pollutant concentrations exhibited marked spatial and seasonal variability, with nitrate ranging from 1.09 to 13.77 mg/L, phosphate from 1.58 to 10.55 mg/L, and total suspended solids from 140.0 to 1680.0 mg/L. Heavy metals frequently exceeded acceptable limits, with zinc ranging from below detection to 0.11 mg/L, copper from below detection to 0.84 mg/L, and lead from below detection to 0.46 mg/L. Seasonal Water Quality Index (WQI) analysis indicated degraded water quality during the wet season in Baniekrom and Kunsu, due to increased runoff carrying agricultural residues, sediments, and mining contaminants. In contrast, Mmobrem showed improved wet-season quality, attributed to rainfall dilution. The Piper diagram further revealed that the water samples predominantly fall within the Ca-Cl hydrochemical facies, reflecting strong geogenic control through basaltic rock weathering, coupled with chloride enrichment likely intensified by agricultural and domestic inputs. Principal component analysis indicated that multiple anthropogenic and natural factors drive water quality variations across the catchment. Ecological risk assessment identified potential risks to algae, resulting from elevated levels of nutrients and metals. Overall, the combined WQI and hydrochemical evidence indicate an intensified nutrient influx during the wet season and increased suspended particulate matter during the dry season, primarily driven by agriculture, deforestation, and mining. The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable water management strategies to mitigate the impacts of human activities on surface water quality in the region.

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Recurring daytime and nighttime modes of VOC emissions in a cool-temperate oak forest

Sekimoto, K.; Suyama, Y.; Kita, Y.; Fukuyama, D.; Koss, A.; Matsukami, A.; Tomihira, S.; Yamagishi, H.; Shiojiri, K.; Saito, T.; Yazaki, K.

2026-07-24 physiology 10.64898/2026.07.20.739470 medRxiv
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Plants emit substantial amounts of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that link plant physiological activity to ecological interactions and atmospheric chemistry. However, the processes regulating VOC emissions within the forest air and at the interface directly above the canopy remain poorly characterized. In this study, we investigated forest-scale VOC dynamics in a cool-temperate deciduous forest dominated by Quercus crispula using high-time- and high-mass-resolution proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-ToF-MS) integrated with positive matrix factorization (PMF). This non-targeted, process-oriented framework was applied to forest-interior and canopy-top atmospheres during rain-free summer days in 2024 and 2025 to extract dominant modes of VOC emissions. The PMF consistently resolved two recurring modes characterized by the daytime and nighttime enhancement patterns. The daytime mode was dominated by isoprene and its oxidation products and demonstrated strong light- and temperature-dependence, whereas the nighttime mode was enriched in mono- and sesquiterpenes. The daytime contribution exhibited a pronounced morning-afternoon asymmetry, indicating non-linear physiological and canopy-scale controls. These patterns were reproducible across the years. This study demonstrates that combining PTR-ToF-MS with PMF enables robust, top-down identification of recurring modes of forest VOC variability within and above forest canopies, linking leaf-level physiology and ecosystem-scale atmospheric exchange. HighlightForest-scale VOC emissions were resolved into recurring daytime and nighttime modes using a non-targeted PTR-ToF-MS and PMF framework.

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Impact of wildfire-related fine particulate matter on tuberculosis notifications in Brazil: a nationwide panel study, 2003-2023

Pham, T. M.; Mendonca, T.; Zhang, Y.; Mallia, D.; Croda, J.; Cohen, T.; Andrews, J. R.; Requia, W.; Walter, K. S.

2026-07-04 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.01.26356762 medRxiv
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Background Wildfire activity and smoke exposure are increasing worldwide because of climate and land-use change. Although fine particulate matter (PM2.5) may impair pulmonary immune defences against tuberculosis (TB), population-level evidence remains limited. We estimated the effect of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure on TB notification rates in Brazil. Methods We conducted a nationwide panel study linking municipality-level monthly TB notifications from Brazil's SINAN system with wildfire-related PM2.5 estimates from GEOS-Chem simulations across 5,545 municipalities (2003-2023). We estimated the impact of high-exposure days (PM2.5 > 25 g/m3) on monthly TB notifications using Poisson regression with fixed effects for municipalities, state-by-year, and state-by-month, controlling for time-invariant differences, secular trends, and seasonality. Distributed lag effects were estimated over 1-24 months before notification. Models accounted for meteorological conditions, GeneXpert diagnostic coverage, and spatial correlation using Conley standard errors. We computed attributable fractions among exposed municipality-months (AFE). Sensitivity analyses evaluated alternative PM2.5 thresholds (15 and 35 g/m3), co-pollutants, and agricultural expansion. Findings From Jan 1, 2003 to Dec 1, 2023, 1,758,982 TB cases were reported. Of these, 353,319 (20.1%) had at least one high-exposure day (PM2.5 > 25 g/m3) 1-24 months before notification. An additional 14 high-exposure days over the 24-month lag period was associated with an average monthly increase of 2.9% [95% CI: 0.9-4.9%] in TB notification rates. Effects peaked at 13 months (IQR: 11-14) prior to notification. Results showed a dose-response relationship across PM2.5 thresholds and were robust to controlling for NO2, O3, and agricultural expansion. Overall, wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure accounted for 2.1% [0.7-3.5%] of TB notifications in exposed municipality-months, corresponding to 7,802 [2,612-12,544] attributable cases. The AFE reached 10.7% [7.1-14.0%] in Pantanal and 7.3% [6.1-8.5%] in Amazonia, areas most impacted by wildfires. Interpretation Wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure may represent an increasingly important and modifiable risk factor for TB. As wildfire activity increases across many regions of the world, these findings highlight the need for integrating air quality into climate adaptation and TB control strategies.

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Ecological Impacts of Additive-Enriched LDPE Microplastics in Agricultural Soils: Single and Multi-Species Assessments

Blanchard, A.; Fabure, J.; Bamiere, A.; Breuil, S.; Creuze des Chateliers, C.; Delort, A.; Etievant, V.; Gervaix, J.; Marret, M.; Plessis, C.; Cantarel, A.; Richaume, A.

2026-07-17 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.17.739118 medRxiv
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Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) microplastics (MPs) are the most frequently sampled type of microplastic in agricultural soils, potentially threatening the soil environment. The majority of MPs that have been investigated are produced from standard polymer formulations, for which the nature of the added compounds is often unknown. Furthermore, standard ecotoxicity tests performed on model species are insufficient for assessing the ecological consequences of MPs contamination in soil. This study examined the responses of multiple keystone species to exposure to MPs in interaction with various additives. No significant effects on their growth were observed when organisms were exposed to MPs alone. However, significant reductions in growth occurred when organisms interacted within uncontaminated soil: the introduction of plants reduced potworm biomass by 49 {+/-} 4.1 % while the introduction of potworms reduced earthworm biomass by 41 {+/-} 5.2%. In MP-contaminated soil containing plants, the average individual biomass of potworm increased significantly from 1.16 {+/-} 0.09 mg in uncontaminated conditions to 2.01 {+/-} 0.27 mg. This suggests that MPs limited the negative effects of interactions. Similar patterns were observed for the potworm-earthworm interaction. MPs containing the highest concentrations of additives induced the strongest biological responses. Analysis of soil parameters revealed that these impacts are likely linked to the disruption of nitrogen cycling. Therefore, it is imperative to comprehensively address the interactions between soil organisms and the influence of additives on plastic ecotoxicity in order to better assess the ecological risk posed by MPs.

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Exposure Duration Shapes the Hepatic Response to GenX: Divergent Acute and Chronic Transcriptomic Profiles Reveal Non-Monotonic Dose Effects and Increased Sensitivity in Human Liver Spheroids

Kim, C.; Tagmount, A.; Zhu, Z.; Barbazuk, W. B.; Bacher, R.; Vulpe, C. D.

2026-08-18 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.08.08.743693 medRxiv
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Hexafluoropropylene oxide dimer acid (GenX), a replacement for legacy per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), is increasingly detected in the environment, yet its chronic toxicity remains poorly characterized. Current safety assessments rely largely on short-term, high-dose studies that may not capture the biological consequences of long-term, low-dose exposure. To address this gap, we employed 3D human liver (HepG2/C3A) spheroids cultured in a continuously rotating bioreactor system (ClinoStar) to systematically evaluate dose- and time-dependent mRNA changes in response to GenX under environmentally relevant conditions. Spheroids were exposed to GenX (0.08-50 M, spanning environmentally relevant to mechanistically informative concentrations) for acute (4 days) and chronic (4 weeks) durations, followed by genome-wide TempO-Seq transcriptomic profiling and benchmark dose (BMD) modeling. GenX elicited pronounced non-monotonic mRNA changes in acute exposure conditions, with the greatest number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) observed at an intermediate concentration (0.4 M). In contrast, chronic exposure exhibited a generally concentration-dependent increase in DEGs, except for the 10 M condition, indicating a more consistent dose-response relationship than acute exposure. Notably, acute and chronic exposures elicited qualitatively distinct mRNA changes with low concordance across matched concentrations, demonstrating that exposure duration was a major determinant of mRNA changes. Acute low-dose GenX exposure preferentially modulated mRNA encoding components of cell cycle-related pathways, whereas acute higher dose exposures suppress mRNA levels of the constituents of lipid metabolic pathways and increase expression of mRNA encoding proteins involved in stress- and toxicity-associated signaling. Chronic exposure revealed a different pattern of changes in mRNA expression not observed under acute exposure conditions, including suppression of cellular components involved in lipid-related pathways at the lowest concentration tested. At higher concentrations, mRNA levels of components of multiple metabolic pathways were altered. Benchmark dose modeling identified a significantly lower transcriptomic point of departure (tPOD) for chronic exposure as compared to acute exposure, suggesting increased cellular sensitivity to prolonged GenX exposure and supporting the relevance of chronic models for human exposure assessment. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that GenX elicits time-dependent and non-monotonic changes in mRNA levels of human liver (HepG2/C3A) spheroids, with distinct responses depending on the exposure duration and dose. This study, therefore, highlights the importance of incorporating chronic, human-relevant in vitro models and transcriptomic endpoints into PFAS risk assessment and suggests that conventional short-term assays may underestimate the biological impact of sustained low-dose exposure. Key message (Impact of the study)This study provides systematic comparisons of short term (4 day) versus longer term (4 weeks), environmentally relevant GenX exposure in human liver spheroids, revealing non-monotonic, time-dependent changes in mRNA levels encoding cellular components of lipid metabolism-related pathways with potential implications for appropriate dose and time exposure parameters for use in New Approach Methods to be applied in risk assessment.